Near the Bubble

The other night I went pretty deep in my first poker tournament at the Sahara. I've played in about a dozen of these this year, cashed in a couple, bubbled twice, and bounced out early more often than I'd like to admit to. The buy-in is $42 (35 to prize pool) for 3000 tourney chips with an opptional add-on of $20 for 2000 tourney chips. Almost everyone buys the add-on, usually two or three at the table do it immediately, most others if they get real low or bust before the break. If you bust out after using the add-on, you can re-enter for another $42 if the alternate list permits. I've seen guys re-enter a couple of times and heard rumors of one wild guy going all-in blind about a dozen times and re-entering after each bust. Doesn't make any sense at all to me, given the field size and payout structure, but if guys want to put more money in the prize pool, I am all for it. My strategy after the first couple is to do the best I can to double up before the break. If I can, I figure I saved myself $20 and avoid the add-on. This hasn't been much of a problem, but once or twice, I've found myself sort of mid-stack with upcoming blinds likely to put me near an M of 10, so I've put the extra $20 in for some cushion.

This time, the field was huge. All 13 tourney tables had 11 players and I was told that the alternate list BEFORE the tourney started was over 20 names. I got lucky on about the third hand. Several limpers to the cut-off, who posted a 500 chip but never stated raise first and then realized his mistake late. The dealer properly announced call and then I look down at two fours in the big blind. Of course I check and eight of us see a flop that has a nice little four right in the door card. We all checked to the intended raiser, who now posted his 500 bet, someone folds, I delay and then smooth call hoping for more action, but everyone behind me falls away. The turn brings an interesting card which allows for lots of draws, but I had this guy on a big pair, so I bet out about 1/3rd of his stack, hoping he'd commit. He bit, pushed all-in, I called immediately and he had rockets, without any draw. The river was safe, and I was chip healthy.

At the break, I learned that 186 players entered and 162 paid for the add-on (not me) for a ~$7500 prize pool. Very nice. I managed to stay ahead of the blinds without any premium pairs through the first two hours. I had enough chips to spash around and get involved and win some pots with marginal holdings, and pulled off a couple of position plays, but no real stone cold bluffs. After the second break I had a sequence of three hands with small pairs that I played in fair position unraised, but just limping was costly enough. My M went below 8, and I open-pushed with big slick twice and just picked up the blinds. With three tables left, I was getting pretty short stacked and was sure I would need to win a race to make the payouts. With 22 players remaining (only 12 would be paid), I caught A-Q in the cutoff unopened and pushed even though the big blind was the overwhelming big stack (and he'd been on a rush). He looked down and immediately called, turning over pocket aces. Just my luck (or maybe his).

I played well enough to be pleased with the outcome, even though I did not cash, but I am starting to question the Harrington-esque plays that I make late in tournaments. It seems that I bust out a lot in this manner and am wondering if it has been disproportionately unlucky, or perhaps non-optimal strategy. In this case, I could have easily been called by a small pair or an ace that I dominated and would have doubled through and probably been able to make the final table. Seems like the right play, but I still wonder ....